Last Updated on 08/07/2023 by てんしょく飯
The Angels’ Shohei Ohtani, who will become a free agent this offseason, will sign a contract with what team? The U.S. media is predicting that he will sign a huge contract either way, but the Washington Post points out that there are some risks involved. The Washington Post” reported under the headline “Shohei Otani is making history, but his next contract is a huge risk.
The “Washington Post” reported in detail… 29 years old is “at an age where he’s going downhill.”
The article goes on to say that Ohtani is believed to earn more than $500 million (¥70.9 billion) if he hits the FA market. It explains that his next contract looks like it could surpass outfielder Mike Trout’s 12-year, $426 million (about ¥60.4 billion) deal, the highest in MLB history. On the other hand, Ohtani turned 29 on July 5, and he also states that players are at the age where they begin to “start going downhill” on the field.
According to WAR, an indicator that expresses a player’s contribution by comprehensively evaluating hitting, baserunning, defense, and pitching, hitters generally reach their peak at age 25. The peak period for pitchers is similar, but after the age of 28, the performance (more than that of hitters) plummets, according to the report.
According to WAR from the U.S. data site Fangraphs, Otani is projected to have a 7.0 WAR as a hitter and a 3.0 WAR as a pitcher this season. Any team looking to sign Ohtani to a long-term contract will take into account the position-specific aging curve in their projections, and using a projection system developed by MLB senior data designer Tom Tango, Ohtani can be expected to produce 27 WAR as a hitter and 15 WAR as a pitcher over the next 10 years, according to the report. WAR27 as a hitter and WAR15 as a pitcher over the next 10 years. In this case, Ohtani’s value is estimated to be $337 million (approx. ¥47.8 billion). If the value of a player’s WAR increases by 5% each year, the value would rise to $387 million (about ¥54.9 billion) over 10 years.
To produce results worth more than $500 million, Otani would have to generate more than 60 WAR over 10 years in terms of WAR, noting that since 2006, when MLB introduced drug testing, the largest WAR a hitter could add between the ages of 29 and 38 was Adrian Beltre’s Among pitchers, current pitcher Max Scherzer added 50.8, and he also won the Cy Young Award two years in a row at ages 31 and 32. As Ohtani ages, both pitching and hitting, he asks, “Can I provide that level of results? Is it worth the $500 million risk?” The question has been asked.
According to data compiled by one analyst, about one in seven MLB pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery since 1974 had a second procedure about five years after the first, which would reduce Ohtani’s time to make an impact. The article goes on to say that Ohtani, a regular pitcher and hitter, “will have far more opportunities to get hurt” than most other players.
The article goes on to say, “We can marvel at his accomplishments and look forward to what lies ahead,” and that “teams pursuing him this offseason should keep in mind the circumstances surrounding players who have entered the final stages of their careers.
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