Last Updated on 11/11/2022 by てんしょく飯
On November 9, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered the withdrawal of Russian troops from the western bank of the Dnepr River in the southern Ukrainian province of Kherson, which he unilaterally declared “annexed” to Russia. This includes the provincial capital of Kherson. The Russian military may lose control of about a quarter of the region in a little more than a month after the “annexation” was declared. President Vladimir Putin’s authority will be undermined as he leads the invasion, and this could be a fatal blow to his regime.
The Russian military could even risk the self-destruction of its elite units amid supply disruptions.
Commander Slobikin, who oversees military operations in Ukraine, said, “It is a difficult decision, but the important thing is to protect the lives of our servicemen,” and reported that it would be operationally most appropriate to withdraw troops to the eastern bank and use the Dnepr River as a new line of defense. Shoigu also said, “I agree with the proposal. The lives of our soldiers are our top priority,” and ordered that safe troop movement be achieved.
Mr. Slovikin said that more than 115,000 residents have already been evacuated from the area around the city of Helson on the west bank, and that he plans to establish a defense base as soon as possible. Slobikin said that more than 115,000 people have already been evacuated from the area around the western city of Cherson.
The Ukrainian side, on the other hand, is becoming increasingly alarmed, claiming that this is a “trap” to gain an advantage in the urban warfare. Advisor to the Presidential Advisor Podlyak also questioned whether this would lead to liberation, tweeting, “I don’t see any signs that Russian troops will withdraw from Herson without a fight.
Regarding the Russian order to withdraw from Herson, he said, “The fact that the defense minister himself has indicated to the world that he will withdraw is heavy. Shouldn’t it be interpreted literally?” said Etsuwa Watanabe, former Eastern Area Admiral of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.
The Ukrainian side continues to take a cautious stance, avoiding loss of infantry and using firepower effectively. With supply disruptions, the Russian military will not achieve results even if it continues to deploy in the West Bank, and there is even a risk that elite units such as airborne and naval infantry will self-destruct,” he analyzes.
In Herson Oblast, Stremousov, the second-highest-ranking official in the Russian “executive branch,” was killed in a car accident on August 9. There is also the possibility of a Ukrainian partisan movement targeting pro-Russian groups. The Russian army is forced to fight on two fronts, against the Ukrainian army and against the partisans,” Watabe said.
The Cherson Oblast is an important stronghold bordering the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. With “conservatives” and “hard-liners” gaining more voice in Russia, criticism of the Putin administration’s ineptitude may increase.
Mr. Watanabe commented, “Withdrawal from the helm means the loss of the only “achievement” that Mr. Putin was able to capture in his invasion campaign. Since the means of withdrawal will be limited, the Russian military will be forced to conduct difficult operations. For the Ukrainian military, this will be a big chance for a counteroffensive.
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