Last Updated on 02/06/2023 by てんしょく飯
Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels) will become a free agent after the World Series this fall.
It seems unlikely that he will sign an extension with the Angels before then.
At the end of last season, Ohtani prefaced his post-game press conference by saying, “I love the Angels fans and the team,” but added, “I want to win more than that.
Of course, the Angels (73-89 record in 2022, 3rd in the West. The Angels (73-89 record in 2022, 3rd in the West; same below) also want to win. However, there is still a question mark over whether they will make the postseason for the first time since 2014. In the A-League West Division, where they belong, four teams, excluding the rebuilding Oakland Athletics (60-102, 5th place), are aiming for the postseason in October.
Not to mention the Houston Astros (106-56/1st place), who are aiming for back-to-back World Series titles, and the Seattle Mariners (90-72/2nd place), who advanced to the postseason for the first time in 21 years. And the same goes for the Texas Rangers (68-94/4th place), who are on a losing streak for the sixth straight year. They have made major reinforcements this offseason as they did last offseason, adding talented pitchers such as Jacob deGrom (New York Mets) and Nathan Iovaldi (Boston Red Sox).
The Angels also acquired Tyler Anderson (Pitcher/Los Angeles Dodgers), Hunter Renfroe (Outfielder/Milwaukee Brewers), Brandon Drury (Infielder/Outfielder/San Diego Padres), Carlos Estevez (Pitcher/Colorado Rockies), etc. (Pitcher from Colorado Rockies), and others.
However, these are the best GM Perry Minassian could do, as the team is in the process of selling the Angels and the future direction of the team is not clear.
For example, Anderson’s three-year, $39 million contract is the most expensive and longest contract the Angels have signed with a player on the FA market. It is smaller than Masanao Yoshida’s (Boston Red Sox) five-year, $90 million contract and Kota Senga’s (New York Mets) five-year, $75 million contract.
Even trading Otani out of the deal?
The Angels have enough members to fulfill Otani’s wishes. …… It is hard to say.
Even if owner Arturo Moreno, who decided not to sell the team last month, gives the go-ahead for a big contract, it is already too late: there are no big names left on the FA market. The Angels have no big-name players left on the FA market, and they have no way of reinforcing themselves through trades. The Angels do not have enough prospects that the other team would want in exchange.
Under the circumstances, it is unlikely that Ohtani will sign an extension. If he stays, he could make the same mistake as Mike Trout.
Trout signed a 12-year, $426.5 million extension with the Angels before the start of the 2019 season. However, Trout’s only three postseason appearances came in 2014. Even if the Angels win out this year, their prospects for next year and beyond are uncertain. It would not be surprising if there is talk of selling the team again.
If the Angels are out of postseason contention as of the summer, they will probably trade Otani away.
There is a way to offer a qualifying offer* to Otani as a FA and get a draft pick, but Trout will be past his prime by the time the player they select rises to prominence. Instead, it would make more sense to acquire a player who has already made his major league debut or is on the verge of making his debut in exchange for Otani.
Qualifying offer: A system that allows a team to make a one-year contract offer of a specified amount (the average of the top 125 salaries in MLB) to a player they do not want to give up.
If he is moved mid-season, Otani would still be a FA. Even if the acquiring team wants to sign him to an extension, there is no rush on the part of Ohtani and his agent, because he can re-sign after he hits the FA market.
There have been a number of reports about teams that are trying to get Ohtani next offseason or are likely to do so. Almost common among them are the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and San Francisco Giants. A few articles also include the New York Yankees.
The Mets are the most likely financial frontrunner.
Otani, who is a pillar of the team in terms of both pitching and hitting, is desired by all teams (15-9 record, 2.33 ERA, .273 batting average, 34 home runs, and 95 runs batted in in 2022. (2022 record: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, .273 batting average, 34 home runs, 95 runs batted in.) The revenue generated by the popularity of the team would also be attractive.
However, for a baseball team that does not have ample funds, it is a high price to pay. The projected 10-year, $500 million (about ¥65.6 billion) contract is the highest in MLB history, surpassing Trout’s total, but it is not a ridiculous deal.
The Yankees’ pitching pillars, Gerrit Cole (13-8, 3.50 ERA) and Aaron Judge (.311 batting average, 62 home runs, 131 runs batted in), have nine-year, $324 million (¥35.3 billion) and nine-year, $360 million (¥49.3 billion) contracts. Even if you add them together, subtract the fact that Ohtani is a DH, etc., and then subtract three-fourths of that amount, it still exceeds $500 million.
Also, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Padres’ Juan Soto (.242 batting average, 27 home runs, 62 runs batted in) turned down a 15-year, $440 million extension offered by the Washington Nationals before last summer’s trade. Moreover, Soto will not take the mound.
From a financial standpoint, the most likely candidate is the Mets. As evidenced by this offseason’s moves, owner Steve Cohen’s money seems inexhaustible. He doesn’t seem to be concerned about the luxury tax. Of the five starting pitchers, Senga is the only one whose contract will continue beyond 2025, so there is also a need.
The DH slot can be vacated by any team, not just the Mets. Just move the DH until then to first base or the outfield. Also, the GM of the Mets is Billy Eppler. Eppler was the GM of the Angels at the time of Ohtani’s arrival in the majors, and he negotiated and finalized the deal.
One downside for the Mets is that they are based on the East Coast; with the exception of the Chicago Cubs, the six teams Ohtani negotiated with in the 2017 offseason were all in the West.
Both the Mets and Yankees were left out of the paperwork. Moreover, it is hard to imagine that money would be the most decisive factor in Ohtani’s selection of a team. On the other hand, the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants were the remaining seven teams after the last round of paperwork.
[Some say the Dodgers have the advantage.
In contrast, none of the contracts signed by the Dodgers this offseason exceeded $20 million (about ¥2.6 billion). It is as if they are preparing to sign Ohtani.
Next offseason, three pitchers, Julio Urias (17-7, 2.16 ERA), Clayton Kershaw (12-3, 2.28 ERA), and Noah Syndergaard (10-10, 3.94 ERA) will be FAs. DH J.D. Martinez (.274 batting average, 16 home runs, 62 runs batted in), acquired from the Red Sox, is also on a one-year deal. The fact that his home base is the closest to the Angels may also appeal to Otani.
From the Padres, both Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA) and Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38 ERA) will also become FAs. But this one is not as simple as it sounds. They will have to choose between bringing in Ohtani or keeping Soto, a FA, in the 2024 offseason.
Also involved in this will be whether Manny Machado (.298 batting average, 32 home runs, 102 runs batted in) will be out of contract next offseason and on the FA market. This is the fifth year of Machado’s 10-year, $300 million contract.
With Buster Posey retiring after 2021, the Giants appear to be looking for a new superstar to be the face of the team. This offseason, they offered a 9-year, $360 million contract to local native Judge, who turned it down, and then reached an agreement with Carlos Correa (.291 batting average, 22 home runs, 64 runs batted in/ Minnesota Twins) on a 13-year, $350 million contract, but after expressing concern about the condition of his right ankle, he did not join. However, he did not join the Dodgers as a result of concerns about the condition of his right ankle.
In this way, the Dodgers seem to be a bit of a frontrunner. However, there are sure to be other teams that will come forward in the future. We still cannot allow ourselves to be too optimistic.
The battle for Shohei Ohtani, the one and only “top-notch two-sport athlete” in both pitching and hitting, is sure to be unprecedented in history.
コメント