Last Updated on 10/17/2022 by てんしょく飯
Ukraine’s reversal offensive is gaining momentum. The Ukrainian military has successively recaptured key points and settlements in the four provinces that Russia unilaterally declared annexed. The Ukrainian army is now rushing to advance further before the arrival of winter.
Nuclear Missiles Aimed at Nuclear Power Plants
We should use smaller nuclear weapons.
In response to the poor performance of the Russian forces, Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Republic in southern Russia and a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, said he would not hesitate to use nuclear missiles to break the war situation.
Sugio Takahashi, director of the Defense Policy Research Office at the National Institute for Defense Studies, warned, “The premise is that Russia is a nuclear power.
We must not forget that Russia is a nuclear power and has been studying the use of nuclear weapons for decades, including during the Soviet era. As long as we are at war with Russia, we must consider that there is always the possibility that nuclear weapons could be used.
In what circumstances, then, would Russia use nuclear weapons? One is when it is believed that using nuclear weapons will win this war. The other, conversely, is when it would be defeated if it did not use nuclear weapons. Currently, Russia is in the latter situation.
However, even if it is outnumbered, there is no need to use nuclear weapons if it can turn the tide of the war with conventional forces. The use of nuclear weapons will emerge as a concrete option if our ongoing efforts to rebuild the front by partially mobilizing reserves do not work.”
Putin began the partial mobilization of the population in late September, but a number of people have fled the country, including the elderly and even young people with no real combat experience.
Putin has already decided to use nuclear weapons?
Meanwhile, the United States has announced that it will provide Ukraine with a new $625 million (approx. ¥90 billion) arms grant, and the latest Western weapons, such as the HIMARS high-mobility rocket artillery system, will be more fully equipped.
The area retaken by Ukrainian forces is expected to expand further, but Putin’s options are limited.
Putin’s options are limited. “First of all, I think there is a possibility that he will conduct a nuclear test on Russian territory near the Ukrainian border. This could be excused as a test, and at the same time, it might be expected to instill fear of a nuclear missile launch in Ukraine and weaken the frontline’s will to fight.
However, President Zelensky has signed a decree stating that Russia’s annexation of the four provinces is invalid, and he has declared that negotiations with Putin are impossible. Nor is it likely that a nuclear test will put the brakes on the recapture operation.
Putin, backed into a corner at the last minute, has only one last resort: dropping a nuclear bomb on Ukraine.
Itsuro Nakamura, professor emeritus at the University of Tsukuba, said, “Putin already has nuclear weapons.
It is possible that Putin has already decided to use nuclear weapons. And that scenario should be a two-stage one.
First, he would aim a tactical nuclear weapon at the Zaporizha nuclear power plant. This is impossible under international law, but according to Putin’s logic, the Zaporizhia region, where the nuclear power plant is located, is Russian territory.
In other words, Ukraine is invading on Russian territory. According to Russia’s nuclear strategic doctrine (basic principles), if Russia’s national survival is threatened, a nuclear counterattack is authorized. They would justify dropping nukes on the Zaporizha nuclear power plant because Ukraine threatened their national survival.
Whether Ukraine is contaminated by radiation as a result, Putin does not care. It is obvious from the way he attacked the four annexed provinces that he has no intention of governing them after he has conquered them. The goal is to break the hearts of the Ukrainians and bring them to their knees by scorching their land.
The world’s largest nuclear submarine, the Belgorod
If Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, how will NATO respond? Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army Europe, told a British newspaper.
“If Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, NATO countries will destroy the Black Sea Fleet with ‘conventional weapons.
“Putin has said that the NATO countries are not going to let Russia use tactical nuclear weapons,” he said.
Putin seems to be moving the world’s largest nuclear submarine, the Belgorod, as his next move, anticipating that the NATO nations will not use nuclear weapons in retaliation. This submarine carries a new type of nuclear torpedo, the Poseidon, which can carry a nuclear warhead and is said to create a huge tsunami containing radioactive materials when it explodes in the Atlantic Ocean.
If Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine and NATO counterattacks, and in response Russia uses more destructive strategic nuclear weapons, the world will be caught in an exchange of nuclear missiles. If NATO fears Putin’s insanity, which could lead to all-out nuclear war, the West will have no choice but to abandon Ukraine. That is exactly what Putin wants.
The World is Entering Armageddon
On the other hand, if NATO responds with nuclear weapons, the world will be plunged into Armageddon. In this case, Alex Glaser, Associate Professor at Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs, conducted a shocking simulation that showed more than 9 million casualties within hours.
The simulation video titled “Plan A,” which Glaser published on YouTube in ’19, begins with a nuclear bomb being launched from a Russian military base in Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea coast and falling near the border between Germany and Poland. It has received renewed attention after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has been viewed more than 4.2 million times.
Mr. Glaser said.
“Now is the most dangerous time for nuclear war since the end of the Cold War. If Putin uses nuclear missiles and NATO responds with the use of nuclear weapons, the world will be doomed. There are no functioning channels of dialogue between Russia and NATO, and misunderstandings could exacerbate the situation and quickly progress to the point of uncontrolled nuclear war.”
Glaser continues that his greatest concern is Putin’s decision.
I don’t think anyone really knows what Putin is thinking right now. Not even the Kremlin’s inner circle can be involved in Putin’s decision-making. Putin probably doesn’t think that a single nuclear missile will break the current phase either.
But the biggest problem is that we don’t know what Putin has in mind other than nuclear missiles to survive.”
Putin’s nuclear drop is becoming more and more realistic. Is there any other way to avoid the worst-case scenario than for Putin to lose his position?
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