Last Updated on 07/21/2022 by てんしょく飯
The iPhone 6s/6s Plus, iPhone 7/7 Plus, and iPhone SE (1st generation) have been excluded from the iOS 16 release in the fall of 2022. All of these iPhones have a home button, but this leaves the iPhone 8/8 Plus, iPhone SE (2nd generation), and iPhone SE (3rd generation) as the only iPhone models with a home button that can be upgraded to the latest OS (iOS 16).
iPhone 7 and iPhone 8, the two-top models in the used market
Since the models subject to the OS upgrade discontinuation were released in 2016 or earlier, they are more likely to be purchased used than new. The iPhone 7 is the most popular, and while the iPhone 6s/6s Plus and iPhone SE (the first generation) are virtually invisible in the top 10 pre-owned market, the iPhone 7 is still a regular at the top of the list, along with the iPhone 8.
Both iPhone 7 and iPhone 8 are equipped with a 4.7-inch display in a 67mm-wide body, making them among the smallest smartphones on the market. The major differences are the processor and the materials used on the back of the phone.
The main differences are the processor and the material used for the back: A10 Fusion for the iPhone 7 and A11 Bionic for the iPhone 8. The back material has been changed from aluminum for the iPhone 7 to glass for the iPhone 8, and only the iPhone 8 supports wireless charging.
Let’s take a look at the differences in selling prices. GEO’s used iPhone 7 is priced in the 11,000 yen range (including tax) to 19,000 yen range, while Docomo’s iPhone 8 is priced in the 15,000 yen to 26,000 yen range, a difference of 4,000 yen to 7,000 yen (all prices as of July 20, 2022). (both as of July 20, 2022).
Will iPhone 7 prices fall due to the discontinuation of the new OS?
How will the discontinuation of OS updates for the iPhone 7, one of the best-selling used iPhones, affect the used market? We asked GEO, Belong (Nikosma), and Newsdotek (formerly Mobile Phone Market), all of which deal in used smartphones.
GEO predicts that even if the iPhone 6s and iPhone 7 are no longer subject to OS upgrades, “there will be no impact, such as discontinuation of sales or extreme price reductions. As with other products, we will continue to sell them at lower prices as time goes by,” and “Since more than five years have already passed since their release, we have already passed the peak of the buying season, so we can expect a gradual decline in value, but we do not expect any major impact. It seems unlikely that prices will fall immediately. Indeed, in GEO’s used sales ranking, iPhone 7 prices did not change between May and June for all three carriers.
Belong commented, “We will continue to carry the product for the time being, but we believe that demand for iPhone SE (1st generation) and iPhone 7 will gradually shift to iPhone 8 and iPhone SE (2nd generation). With the popularity of iPhones with a home button still strong in the used market, it is natural to think that iPhone 8 and iPhone SE (2nd generation) will begin to sell.
Newsdotek said, “This will have an impact for a certain period of time from now on. As the volume of purchases of devices that are not eligible for the program increases, prices will fall due to the balance between supply and demand. Since demand is not decreasing, buying and selling will become more active.” It is easy to imagine that more users will switch from iPhone 6s and iPhone 7 to other models, which will increase the number of handsets being bought. This means that more handsets will be bought than there is demand for and distributed on the used market, which will cause the price of iPhone 6s and iPhone 7 to drop.
On Nikosma, the iPhone 7 price in June dropped from 16,370 yen in May to 13,400 yen, and it appears that some stores and vendors are experiencing price fluctuations.
Will the iPhone SE (2nd generation) start selling alongside the iPhone 8?
Currently, iPhone 7 and iPhone 8 are the two most popular used smartphones, but GEO predicts that “the number one seller has already shifted to iPhone 8, and we expect the share of sales of the 8 and later generations to gradually increase. Will the iPhone 8 become the dominant player in the market in the future? Or will the iPhone SE (2nd generation) break into the market? ……
Looking at prices on GEO (state A), iPhone SE (2nd generation) is in the 25,000-39,000 yen range, 10,000-13,000 yen higher than iPhone 8. iPhone 8 was released in September 2017, while iPhone SE (2nd generation) was released in April 2020, a difference of about 2.5 years. While both models share the same body design, the iPhone 8 is equipped with the A11 Bionic processor, while the iPhone SE (2nd generation) is equipped with the A13 Bionic processor, the same as the iPhone 11 series, making the performance difference significant.
The price difference of more than ¥10,000 is understandable, but if the price difference is not reduced to the level of the iPhone 7 and 8, it will take time for the iPhone 8 and the iPhone SE to split in popularity. Newsdotek predicts that the iPhone 8 and iPhone SE (2nd generation) will be the center of popularity, but that prices will not collapse. The recent trend of high purchase prices and the global popularity of used smartphones would normally lead to a price collapse as the years go by, but for this particular occasion, it seems that there will be no price collapse. The current iPhone 8 and iPhone SE (2nd generation) prices will probably stay the same.
One thing that can be said is that the popularity of the iPhone 8 will remain strong in the used smartphone market.
Many people who have used the iPhone SE (first generation) and iPhone 7 up until now say, ‘I want an iPhone, but I want a model with minimal specs, light weight, and a home button,’ and many will consider switching to the iPhone 8, iPhone SE (second generation), or iPhone SE (third generation),” he said. We expect that many people will consider switching to iPhone 8, iPhone SE (2nd generation), or iPhone SE (3rd generation).
Even though iPhone models without a home button are the mainstay of the iPhone lineup, there are still many users who desire a home button. Newsdotek also believes that the demand for a physical home button will remain for a long time. The used iPhone 8 will continue to hold the throne for three reasons: it has a home button, it is inexpensive at around ¥20,000, and it is compatible with the latest operating systems.
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